November 17, 2011
Near the end of yesterday’s North American session, I expressed that cable take another stab at the lows before moving higher. However, during the Asian session, the GBPUSD has been pivoting around the key 1.5750 large quarter point level instead of moving lower as expected. The 8hr candle close above that level signals that cable may, in fact, be done with the lows and move higher in today’s session. Bulls target 1.5820 then 1.5900 before the major psychological level of 1.6000. Bottom line: GBPUSD maintains its bullish bias.

Near the end of yesterday’s North American session, I expressed that cable take another stab at the lows before moving higher. However, during the Asian session, the GBPUSD has been pivoting around the key 1.5750 large quarter point level instead of moving lower as expected. The 8hr candle close above that level signals that cable may, in fact, be done with the lows and move higher in today’s session.

Bulls target 1.5820 then 1.5900 before the major psychological level of 1.6000. Bottom line: GBPUSD maintains its bullish bias.

11:31pm  |   URL: http://fmfx.tumblr.com/post/12961243404/cablebullish
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(No. OF NOTES: 70)
  
FILED UNDER: GBPUSD trading commentary 8hr chart 
September 7, 2011
The EUR Is Unhinging No it’s not. But it makes for a great headline LOL. To be honest, I have been amazed at the resiliency of the euro. I thought for sure Greece would drive the EURUSD below 1.25 and the EURGBP below 0.80. But that thought is 2 years ago and we find both currency pairs well above those levels. And while the SNB’s peg to the euro brought mass attention to the CHF, I did see one tweet that considered the other side of the trade.  The SNB has affectively propped up the EUR. If the SNB needs to devalue its currency, it will need to buy euros to do so. As such, the EUR has another agency willing to keep the currency intact. With the Chinese, the Swiss, and the Germans all with incentive to keep the single currency in existence and with the ammunition to do it, I don’t expect we will see the day of reckoning that many of us anticipated when reality of Greece reverberated through the markets. The EURGBP continues to remain bullish as price remains above 0.8750. The major area of resistance remains 0.8880. A return to this level will mark a 5th attempt. And I tell you, the odds of breakout above 0.8880 are very good. But until then, a EURGBP close above 0.8800 gives the pair a bullish bias. A close below 0.8750 changes the picture entirely. No Francs (The Economist) Another Reason to Buy Gold: Franc Losing Safety Status (CNBC) Will the SNB be successful in slowing the franc? (Daily Forex Trading Edge) Updated chart below:

The EUR Is Unhinging

No it’s not. But it makes for a great headline LOL. To be honest, I have been amazed at the resiliency of the euro. I thought for sure Greece would drive the EURUSD below 1.25 and the EURGBP below 0.80. But that thought is 2 years ago and we find both currency pairs well above those levels. And while the SNB’s peg to the euro brought mass attention to the CHF, I did see one tweet that considered the other side of the trade. 

The SNB has affectively propped up the EUR. If the SNB needs to devalue its currency, it will need to buy euros to do so. As such, the EUR has another agency willing to keep the currency intact. With the Chinese, the Swiss, and the Germans all with incentive to keep the single currency in existence and with the ammunition to do it, I don’t expect we will see the day of reckoning that many of us anticipated when reality of Greece reverberated through the markets.

The EURGBP continues to remain bullish as price remains above 0.8750. The major area of resistance remains 0.8880. A return to this level will mark a 5th attempt. And I tell you, the odds of breakout above 0.8880 are very good. But until then, a EURGBP close above 0.8800 gives the pair a bullish bias. A close below 0.8750 changes the picture entirely.

Updated chart below:

EURGBP daily chart Sept 7 2011

2:10am  |   URL: http://fmfx.tumblr.com/post/9912923077/eurgbp-bullish-still
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(No. OF NOTES: 11)
  
FILED UNDER: EURGBP 8hr chart technical analysis 
August 30, 2011
EURGBP Starts The Week Toppish After a very bullish close to a very bullish week, EURGBP starts this new trading week looking weak. Attempts at 0.8880 have remained as before. Since Sunday evening, the 8hr chart continues to put in wicks that suggest weakness. A first target is the more aggressive 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level at 0.8810. A 2nd target is the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of the entire rally off the 0.8650 lows at 0.8790. After this consolidation, watch for continuation to the upside or more weakness. The key level will be 0.8750 to the downside and 0.8850 to the upside.

EURGBP Starts The Week Toppish

After a very bullish close to a very bullish week, EURGBP starts this new trading week looking weak. Attempts at 0.8880 have remained as before. Since Sunday evening, the 8hr chart continues to put in wicks that suggest weakness.

A first target is the more aggressive 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level at 0.8810. A 2nd target is the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of the entire rally off the 0.8650 lows at 0.8790.

After this consolidation, watch for continuation to the upside or more weakness. The key level will be 0.8750 to the downside and 0.8850 to the upside.

1:10am  |   URL: http://fmfx.tumblr.com/post/9580975608/eurgbp-weak
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FILED UNDER: EURGBP 8hr chart technical analysis 
August 16, 2011
GBPUSD UPDATE Before the market open this week, I did hold a bearish bias on the GBPUSD. It would only change if price remained above 1.6250. It did. And the pair rallied to high of 1.6410. However, cable failed to remain above 1.6350. As a result, cable is trading lower at 1.6325 at the time of this writing. The 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of Monday’s intraday price action at 1.6320 has been respected so far. However, the real level to watch on the news release is 1.6250. A break below and price heads towards the green zone. If price remains above, then it heads towards 1.6350 on its way to 1.6500. Ultimately, I remain a long-term bear until price trades above 1.6500. Trade what you see!

GBPUSD UPDATE

Before the market open this week, I did hold a bearish bias on the GBPUSD. It would only change if price remained above 1.6250. It did. And the pair rallied to high of 1.6410. However, cable failed to remain above 1.6350. As a result, cable is trading lower at 1.6325 at the time of this writing. The 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of Monday’s intraday price action at 1.6320 has been respected so far. However, the real level to watch on the news release is 1.6250. A break below and price heads towards the green zone. If price remains above, then it heads towards 1.6350 on its way to 1.6500. Ultimately, I remain a long-term bear until price trades above 1.6500. Trade what you see!

12:36am  |   URL: http://fmfx.tumblr.com/post/8989311462/gbpusd-update
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(No. OF NOTES: 5)
  
FILED UNDER: GBPUSD 8hr chart trading commentary 
August 14, 2011
GBPUSD New Week Outlook August 14 2011 Though cable managed to close the week above the key 1.6250 level, the pair maintains a bearish bias as long as price holds below 1.6500. At the open, price has the bullish momentum to move into the red sell zone that is marked by the 50% and 61.8% Fibonacci retracement levels of last week’s move to the downside. The main target for bears will be the green buy zone. However, if price manages to break and hold below 1.6100 support then expect price to move to the 1.6000 major psychological level. From there, bears will have to prove themselves with a push towards the 1.5770 lows. This week sees plenty of key economic data out of the UK that could make or break sterling this week. UK CPI is released Tuesday followed by the Bank of England meeting minutes release on Wednesday. UK retail sales will be contrasted to the US retail sales report of last week. Since both economies are heavily reliant on the consumer, investors will looks to see which economy is stronger relative to one another. There is also a lot of economic news from the US this week but I expect that UK fundamentals will ultimately dictate direction for the GBPUSD currency pair. Trade what you see!

GBPUSD New Week Outlook August 14 2011

Though cable managed to close the week above the key 1.6250 level, the pair maintains a bearish bias as long as price holds below 1.6500. At the open, price has the bullish momentum to move into the red sell zone that is marked by the 50% and 61.8% Fibonacci retracement levels of last week’s move to the downside.

The main target for bears will be the green buy zone. However, if price manages to break and hold below 1.6100 support then expect price to move to the 1.6000 major psychological level. From there, bears will have to prove themselves with a push towards the 1.5770 lows.

This week sees plenty of key economic data out of the UK that could make or break sterling this week. UK CPI is released Tuesday followed by the Bank of England meeting minutes release on Wednesday. UK retail sales will be contrasted to the US retail sales report of last week. Since both economies are heavily reliant on the consumer, investors will looks to see which economy is stronger relative to one another. There is also a lot of economic news from the US this week but I expect that UK fundamentals will ultimately dictate direction for the GBPUSD currency pair. Trade what you see!

11:18am  |   URL: http://fmfx.tumblr.com/post/8914293356/gbpusd-remains-bearish
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(No. OF NOTES: 5)
  
FILED UNDER: GBPUSD 8hr chart technical analysis