September 7, 2011
The EUR Is Unhinging No it’s not. But it makes for a great headline LOL. To be honest, I have been amazed at the resiliency of the euro. I thought for sure Greece would drive the EURUSD below 1.25 and the EURGBP below 0.80. But that thought is 2 years ago and we find both currency pairs well above those levels. And while the SNB’s peg to the euro brought mass attention to the CHF, I did see one tweet that considered the other side of the trade.  The SNB has affectively propped up the EUR. If the SNB needs to devalue its currency, it will need to buy euros to do so. As such, the EUR has another agency willing to keep the currency intact. With the Chinese, the Swiss, and the Germans all with incentive to keep the single currency in existence and with the ammunition to do it, I don’t expect we will see the day of reckoning that many of us anticipated when reality of Greece reverberated through the markets. The EURGBP continues to remain bullish as price remains above 0.8750. The major area of resistance remains 0.8880. A return to this level will mark a 5th attempt. And I tell you, the odds of breakout above 0.8880 are very good. But until then, a EURGBP close above 0.8800 gives the pair a bullish bias. A close below 0.8750 changes the picture entirely. No Francs (The Economist) Another Reason to Buy Gold: Franc Losing Safety Status (CNBC) Will the SNB be successful in slowing the franc? (Daily Forex Trading Edge) Updated chart below:

The EUR Is Unhinging

No it’s not. But it makes for a great headline LOL. To be honest, I have been amazed at the resiliency of the euro. I thought for sure Greece would drive the EURUSD below 1.25 and the EURGBP below 0.80. But that thought is 2 years ago and we find both currency pairs well above those levels. And while the SNB’s peg to the euro brought mass attention to the CHF, I did see one tweet that considered the other side of the trade. 

The SNB has affectively propped up the EUR. If the SNB needs to devalue its currency, it will need to buy euros to do so. As such, the EUR has another agency willing to keep the currency intact. With the Chinese, the Swiss, and the Germans all with incentive to keep the single currency in existence and with the ammunition to do it, I don’t expect we will see the day of reckoning that many of us anticipated when reality of Greece reverberated through the markets.

The EURGBP continues to remain bullish as price remains above 0.8750. The major area of resistance remains 0.8880. A return to this level will mark a 5th attempt. And I tell you, the odds of breakout above 0.8880 are very good. But until then, a EURGBP close above 0.8800 gives the pair a bullish bias. A close below 0.8750 changes the picture entirely.

Updated chart below:

EURGBP daily chart Sept 7 2011

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FILED UNDER: EURGBP 8hr chart technical analysis 
August 30, 2011
EURGBP Starts The Week Toppish After a very bullish close to a very bullish week, EURGBP starts this new trading week looking weak. Attempts at 0.8880 have remained as before. Since Sunday evening, the 8hr chart continues to put in wicks that suggest weakness. A first target is the more aggressive 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level at 0.8810. A 2nd target is the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of the entire rally off the 0.8650 lows at 0.8790. After this consolidation, watch for continuation to the upside or more weakness. The key level will be 0.8750 to the downside and 0.8850 to the upside.

EURGBP Starts The Week Toppish

After a very bullish close to a very bullish week, EURGBP starts this new trading week looking weak. Attempts at 0.8880 have remained as before. Since Sunday evening, the 8hr chart continues to put in wicks that suggest weakness.

A first target is the more aggressive 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level at 0.8810. A 2nd target is the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of the entire rally off the 0.8650 lows at 0.8790.

After this consolidation, watch for continuation to the upside or more weakness. The key level will be 0.8750 to the downside and 0.8850 to the upside.

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FILED UNDER: EURGBP 8hr chart technical analysis 
August 26, 2011
EURGBP Week End Wrap The EURGBP has rallied for the last 2 trading weeks. But the trend gained considerable strength this week as the bulls targeted the short term resistance level at 0.8880. However, despite the momentum of this trend, I saw too many bears in my Twitter and StockTwits streams this morning. It seems the plan is to step in front of this train as it nears 0.8880 level where price has failed at this level 3 times prior. While seemingly logic, it actually isn’t. First off, follow the trend, especially a daily chart trend. This rally is a result of another failure at the 0.8650 level, a short term support level on the daily chart. A trend that has rallied over 200 pips shouldn’t be ignored. Plus, the failed low is a higher low - a subtle bullish hint. Secondly, when a currency pair looks to challenge a level more 2 or more times, it is usually a hint of an eventual breakout of that particular level. My mentor taught me that. Third, there is NOTHING bearish about this candle. What we need to watch for in the new trading week ahead is if the next candle puts in a wick like the 3 times before it. Remember that the European Central Bank President speak tomorrow when the markets are closed. With the European sovereign debt crisis in full swing, market participants will listen carefully as to whether or not Trichet chooses to finally acknowledge the crisis with monetary policy. The market will execute judgement on Sunday at the open. Enjoy the weekend!

EURGBP Week End Wrap

The EURGBP has rallied for the last 2 trading weeks. But the trend gained considerable strength this week as the bulls targeted the short term resistance level at 0.8880. However, despite the momentum of this trend, I saw too many bears in my Twitter and StockTwits streams this morning. It seems the plan is to step in front of this train as it nears 0.8880 level where price has failed at this level 3 times prior. While seemingly logic, it actually isn’t.

First off, follow the trend, especially a daily chart trend. This rally is a result of another failure at the 0.8650 level, a short term support level on the daily chart. A trend that has rallied over 200 pips shouldn’t be ignored. Plus, the failed low is a higher low - a subtle bullish hint.

Secondly, when a currency pair looks to challenge a level more 2 or more times, it is usually a hint of an eventual breakout of that particular level. My mentor taught me that.

Third, there is NOTHING bearish about this candle. What we need to watch for in the new trading week ahead is if the next candle puts in a wick like the 3 times before it.

Remember that the European Central Bank President speak tomorrow when the markets are closed. With the European sovereign debt crisis in full swing, market participants will listen carefully as to whether or not Trichet chooses to finally acknowledge the crisis with monetary policy. The market will execute judgement on Sunday at the open.

Enjoy the weekend!

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FILED UNDER: EURGBP daily chart analysis technical 
August 14, 2011
EURGBP New Week Outlook August 14 2011 The EURGBP also saw some wild moves last week as the market had to deal with the fact that now France as entered the European sovereign debt crisis discussion at the same time that Italy has become a serious concern in the market. Technically, however, the pair gave mixed signals as price made lows at 0.8640 rallied over 200 pips to 0.8880 and ended the week at 0.8750. The lows on Friday at 0.8730 gave a very small signal that EURGBP will head lower by piercing even the 78.6% Fibonacci level. Also, price closed the week below 0.8750 even if by only a few pips (0.8748 on my platform). Rallies to the 0.8880 highs continue to be met by sellers to target the green buy zone below 0.8700. However, the week closed before entering this green zone. Therefore, this pair continues to maintain is bearish bias into the 0.8600’s. Only a break and hold above 0.8880 changes this bias to bullish.

EURGBP New Week Outlook August 14 2011

The EURGBP also saw some wild moves last week as the market had to deal with the fact that now France as entered the European sovereign debt crisis discussion at the same time that Italy has become a serious concern in the market. Technically, however, the pair gave mixed signals as price made lows at 0.8640 rallied over 200 pips to 0.8880 and ended the week at 0.8750.

The lows on Friday at 0.8730 gave a very small signal that EURGBP will head lower by piercing even the 78.6% Fibonacci level. Also, price closed the week below 0.8750 even if by only a few pips (0.8748 on my platform). Rallies to the 0.8880 highs continue to be met by sellers to target the green buy zone below 0.8700. However, the week closed before entering this green zone. Therefore, this pair continues to maintain is bearish bias into the 0.8600’s. Only a break and hold above 0.8880 changes this bias to bullish.

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FILED UNDER: EURGBP daily chart technical analysis 
August 2, 2011
EURGBP Carves A Base The EURGBP has managed to base at 0.8730 with a spike low at 0.8705. Buyers look ripe to step in at these levels if we do not get an hourly close below 0.8700. A failure targets first 0.8850 with an ultimate target of 0.8900. A break below targets 0.8680 with an ultimate target of 0.8600. News this week will be key with construction PMI out later this morning and Bank of England on deck for Thursday.

EURGBP Carves A Base

The EURGBP has managed to base at 0.8730 with a spike low at 0.8705. Buyers look ripe to step in at these levels if we do not get an hourly close below 0.8700. A failure targets first 0.8850 with an ultimate target of 0.8900. A break below targets 0.8680 with an ultimate target of 0.8600. News this week will be key with construction PMI out later this morning and Bank of England on deck for Thursday.

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FILED UNDER: EURGBP 4hr chart trading commentary 
July 18, 2011
EURGBP UPDATE Bounces out of 0.8720 as expected on its first attempt on the level in over a month. So far a high on the day at 0.8780 still repects the channel noted yesterday. It seems we will get a bullish close on EURGBP above 0.8750 today. 0.8820/50 are key to the upside as we head into the BoE meeting minutes release. Watch for sellers to step in for a bigger move to the downside. A hold below 0.8850 confirms. Trade what you see!

EURGBP UPDATE

Bounces out of 0.8720 as expected on its first attempt on the level in over a month. So far a high on the day at 0.8780 still repects the channel noted yesterday.

It seems we will get a bullish close on EURGBP above 0.8750 today. 0.8820/50 are key to the upside as we head into the BoE meeting minutes release. Watch for sellers to step in for a bigger move to the downside. A hold below 0.8850 confirms. Trade what you see!

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FILED UNDER: EURGBP 4hr chart trading commentary 
July 17, 2011
Sellers Can Gain Momentum in EURGBP If price can hold below 0.8720, the first target is 0.8670. The real test for bears will be 0.8600, the 61.8% Fibonacci level of the entire 2011 EURGBP rally. Watch price action going into the week.

Sellers Can Gain Momentum in EURGBP

If price can hold below 0.8720, the first target is 0.8670. The real test for bears will be 0.8600, the 61.8% Fibonacci level of the entire 2011 EURGBP rally. Watch price action going into the week.

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FILED UNDER: EURGBP daily chart technical analysis 
EURGBP starts the new trading week developing beautifully to the downside as the 38.2% Fib holds with lower highs and lower lows. 

EURGBP starts the new trading week developing beautifully to the downside as the 38.2% Fib holds with lower highs and lower lows. 

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FILED UNDER: EURGBP daily chart trading commentary 
May 16, 2011
EURGBP Looking To Rally The EURGBP made new lows last week at 0.8673 respecting the 0.8670 major short term support level on the daily chart. The pair then bounced out of that level in a corrective rally to 0.8800 ahead of the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of the entire breakdown from 0.9040 - 0.8673 at 0.8814. However, instead of making new lows, the EURGBP made a higher high as the market opened on Sunday at 0.8679. When the pair broke above the 38.2% Fibonacci level (circled above) after the failure at the lows, that was the signal that the pair was headed higher. And in fact it did making a session high today at 0.8670. Breaking through the 61.8% Fibonacci level, the pair look like it will target 0.8800 and break above to test 0.8810/20. Only a break above shifts focus back to bulls.

EURGBP Looking To Rally

The EURGBP made new lows last week at 0.8673 respecting the 0.8670 major short term support level on the daily chart. The pair then bounced out of that level in a corrective rally to 0.8800 ahead of the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of the entire breakdown from 0.9040 - 0.8673 at 0.8814.

However, instead of making new lows, the EURGBP made a higher high as the market opened on Sunday at 0.8679. When the pair broke above the 38.2% Fibonacci level (circled above) after the failure at the lows, that was the signal that the pair was headed higher. And in fact it did making a session high today at 0.8670.

Breaking through the 61.8% Fibonacci level, the pair look like it will target 0.8800 and break above to test 0.8810/20. Only a break above shifts focus back to bulls.

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FILED UNDER: EURGBP technical analysis hourly chart 
April 26, 2011
EURGBP Ahead of UK GDP

While most of the market is looking ahead to the US FOMC meeting, sterling traders await the UK GDP number which will be released ahead of the Fed announcement. Today’s UK CBI manufacturing number was dismal and indicates to market participants that the British economy may have been weaker than the market expects in the 1st quarter of this year.

EURGBP 60 minute chart

After languishing during Monday’s session above 0.8800, the EURGBP broke out after the release of the poor UK CBI numbers as sterling took a hit on the news across the board. This breakout rally made highs at 0.8903 before falling back to the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level late in the NY session.

EURGBP daily chart

If UK GDP is weak, fully expect price to break out and test the 12-month highs at 0.8940. A break above that level sees price complete the quarter to 0.9000, a call I made way back in January. However, if price surprises to the upside, price will retrace this rally back to 0.8850. A break of that level to the downside sees price go to 0.8800.

Remember, trade the market reaction (price action) not the news headline.

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FILED UNDER: EURGBP hourly daily chart technical analysis 
April 19, 2011
Euro Bulls Won’t Go Away

Yesterday, Finnish elections and Greece soured the euro and supported the EURGBP’s descent to 0.8750. An expected correction after the failure at the 0.8920 highs, the pair remains bullish as it finds support at 0.8750 and begins to rally off the lows at 0.8740.

EURGBP daily chart

The EURGBP pair found support once again at the 61.8% Fibonacci level from the weekly chart at 0.8735. Despite the near-reversal, the pair remains well-supported and in today’s trading session has moved off the 0.8750 lows as it consolidated above 0.8750 at yesterday’s close. The bullish behavior around 0.8750, as price failed to push lower, prompted buyers to step in.

EURGBP hourly chart

Judging from the hourly chart, the pair has plenty of room to stage a corrective rally to 0.8810. However, I consider a break above 0.8800 a bullish development and would expect a close above the whole number to prompt further gains toward previous resistance at 0.8840/50.

After a blank economic calendar from the UK, the market looks ahead to the release of the Bank of England (BoE) meeting minutes tomorrow. If there are no hawkish clues, the market will be very disappointed and could help send the pair past 0.8850 and back to the 0.8920 highs. On the other hand, any hints of more hawks in the BoE beyond the expected 3 (Sentence, Weale, and Dale) and the EURGBP could find itself below 0.8750 to challenge the lows at 0.8720.

Read also:

  • The Week Ahead April 17 2011 (FMFX)
  • Euro Gains on Bets ECB Will Raise Rates Even Amid Sovereign-Debt Turmoil (Bloomberg)
  • U.K. Pound Declines Versus Euro on Bets BOE Will Increase Rates After ECB (Bloomberg)
  • Kenny Says Ireland Will Not Default as Greece Concerns Mount (Bloomberg)
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FILED UNDER: EURGBP technical analysis daily hourly chart 
April 17, 2011
The Week Ahead April 17 2011

The EURGBP looks like further declines. Even though it managed to end the week above 0.8940/50 previous resistance, it 1) respected the 50% Fibonacci level on the bounce after the breakdown from 0.8950 highs and 2) made lower highs on each bounce out of the 0.8810s lows.

EURGBP 60 minute chart

A break below 0.8800 targets 0.8750. A hold above 0.8800 targets 0.8900.

EURGBP daily chart

The GBPUSD also looks like it has put in a top at 1.6430, which is the 38.2% Fibonacci level on the monthly chart. Even as price continues to hold above 1.6250, it is the failure at 1.6400/30 that gives the pair an increasingly bearish outlook.

GBPUSD 60 minute chart

GBPUSD daily chart

Bears must hold below 1.6250 to build the momentum needed for price to target the 1.6182 50% Fibonacci retracement level. As long as price continues to remain below 1.6325 at the market open, price is likely to decline towards the 1.6250 support. A hold above 1.6250, however, will have price targeting 1.6400/30 highs again. A break above the highs targets 1.6500. However, only a daily close above 1.6430 will keep cable bullish.

The GBPAUD is a little more uncertain. After its breakdown below 1.5750, the pair became rangebound between 1.5440 and 1.5650. However, during Friday’s trading session the GBPAUD finally broke below the range bottom to a low of 1.5415. However, the pair closed the week back at 1.5440 signaling to me that this was merely a range extension to the downside rather than a breakdown. In addition, as GBPAUD broke to new lows, the AUDUSD failed to break above its highs at 1.0580.

GBPAUD daily chart

GBPAUD 60 minute chart

In my opinion, this pair remains rangebound. Watch these various Fibonacci retracement levels to see if the downside momentum remains. However, I anticipate GBPAUD will rally back to the top of the range at 1.5650 as long as AUDUSD remains below 1.0580. A break above 1.5670 high targets 1.5750. If price remains below 1.5440, expect price to target 1.5300 support.

Fundamentals

  • China PBOC Raises Deposit Reserve Requirement Again (MarketWatch)
  • Gold Over £900/oz As British Pound Falls Sharply - Soaring Inflation Sees UK Retail Sales Plunge Most On Record (Zero Hedge)
  • UK Inflation Plunges As Retail Sales Drop By Most On Record (Zero Hedge)
  • The Euro Is Sliding After Europe’s Worst Nightmare Comes True In Finland (Business Insider)
  • Greece Says No Restructuring Plan in Place as Traders Raise Default Bets (Bloomberg)
  • G-20 Names ‘Too Big to Ignore’ Economies, Downplays Shocks (Bloomberg)

Trade what you see!

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FILED UNDER: GBPUSD EURGBP GBPAUD hourly daily chart technical fundamental analysis 
April 14, 2011
EURGBP Still Bullish The 38.2 Fibonacci level is a good place for bulls to come in. A break below there targets 0.8820, also the 50% Fibonacci level. Not much news out of Europe this session so moves should be very technical if we don’t get any surprise announcements. Fundamentals still favor the euro with China assuring the markets that there is plenty of help for periphery European economies, the markets are left to weigh the sentiment of the central banks. The European Central Bank (ECB) is clearly more hawkish than the Bank of England (BoE). The uptrend is only in question if price closes below 0.8840. It changes with a close below 0.8750. Read also: Interest rates ‘on hold until August’ (The Telegraph) China to Help Spain’s Ailing Banks (The Fiscal Times)

EURGBP Still Bullish

The 38.2 Fibonacci level is a good place for bulls to come in. A break below there targets 0.8820, also the 50% Fibonacci level. Not much news out of Europe this session so moves should be very technical if we don’t get any surprise announcements. Fundamentals still favor the euro with China assuring the markets that there is plenty of help for periphery European economies, the markets are left to weigh the sentiment of the central banks. The European Central Bank (ECB) is clearly more hawkish than the Bank of England (BoE). The uptrend is only in question if price closes below 0.8840. It changes with a close below 0.8750.

Read also:

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FILED UNDER: EURGBP daily chart technical analysis 
April 12, 2011
The Week Ahead April 11 2011

Though cable behaved very bullish with every dip being bought ahead of the 1.6250 large quarter point, GBPUSD continued to find resistance at the 1.6427, the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level on the monthly chart. Thanks to @pdtpatrick for sharing!

GBPUSD monthly chart from Think First, Blink Second

If cable continues to fail at 1.6430, then price will fall back to 1.6250. A break below this level, targets 1.6100 support and then 1.6000.

The EURGBP continues to find support at 0.8850. As long as 0.8800 continues to hold as resistance, this pair continues to be bullish. Target of 0.8900 and 0.9000 remain.

The GBPAUD is still rangebound. Price now at the top of the range and the AUDUSD below 1.05 major half point, watch GBPAUD to continue higher towards the 1.5750 large quarter point. This pair remains bullish as long as price is unable to break below 1.5425.

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FILED UNDER: EURGBP GBPAUD GBPUSD technical analysis daily monthly chart 
April 8, 2011
EUR/GBP undeniably bullish as it closes the week well above 0.8800. This level has been resistance all week. Though it should take some weeks, this pair is headed to 0.9000. In the interim, 0.8850 remains resistance with the first bull target at 0.8900.

EUR/GBP undeniably bullish as it closes the week well above 0.8800. This level has been resistance all week. Though it should take some weeks, this pair is headed to 0.9000. In the interim, 0.8850 remains resistance with the first bull target at 0.8900.

11:37am  |   URL: http://fmfx.tumblr.com/post/4445183817/eurgbp-closes-bullish-on-the-week
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FILED UNDER: EURGBP daily chart technical analysis