November 17, 2011
Near the end of yesterday’s North American session, I expressed that cable take another stab at the lows before moving higher. However, during the Asian session, the GBPUSD has been pivoting around the key 1.5750 large quarter point level instead of moving lower as expected. The 8hr candle close above that level signals that cable may, in fact, be done with the lows and move higher in today’s session. Bulls target 1.5820 then 1.5900 before the major psychological level of 1.6000. Bottom line: GBPUSD maintains its bullish bias.

Near the end of yesterday’s North American session, I expressed that cable take another stab at the lows before moving higher. However, during the Asian session, the GBPUSD has been pivoting around the key 1.5750 large quarter point level instead of moving lower as expected. The 8hr candle close above that level signals that cable may, in fact, be done with the lows and move higher in today’s session.

Bulls target 1.5820 then 1.5900 before the major psychological level of 1.6000. Bottom line: GBPUSD maintains its bullish bias.

11:31pm  |   URL: http://fmfx.tumblr.com/post/12961243404/cablebullish
(view comments) 
(No. OF NOTES: 70)
  
FILED UNDER: GBPUSD trading commentary 8hr chart 
November 10, 2011
GBPUSD QUICK LOOK POST-BOE: With monetary policy unchanged and GBPUSD rallying, these are the Fibs that everyone is watching. However, I just don’t think this is a corrective rally. I’m looking for these Fibs to be broken.

GBPUSD QUICK LOOK POST-BOE:

With monetary policy unchanged and GBPUSD rallying, these are the Fibs that everyone is watching. However, I just don’t think this is a corrective rally. I’m looking for these Fibs to be broken.

5:35am  |   URL: http://fmfx.tumblr.com/post/12597831452/gbpusd-quick-look-post-boe-with-monetary-policy
(view comments) 
(No. OF NOTES: 66)
  
FILED UNDER: GBPUSD trading commentary 1hr chart 
PRE-BOE QUICK LOOK Cable is weak headed into the Bank of England rate announcement. Interesting level where bulls have stepped in before but the market is obviously waiting on the central bank before pushing significantly in either direction. I’ve been biased for more correction into the red Fibs but I’m aware that we could push higher from here. 5 minutes until showtime!

PRE-BOE QUICK LOOK

Cable is weak headed into the Bank of England rate announcement. Interesting level where bulls have stepped in before but the market is obviously waiting on the central bank before pushing significantly in either direction. I’ve been biased for more correction into the red Fibs but I’m aware that we could push higher from here. 5 minutes until showtime!

3:55am  |   URL: http://fmfx.tumblr.com/post/12596188724/pre-boe-quick-look-cable-is-weak-headed-into-the
(view comments) 
(No. OF NOTES: 60)
  
FILED UNDER: GBPUSD trading commentary 4hr chart 
November 9, 2011
QUICK LOOK GBPUSD giving bulls another opportunity with this morning’s descent from 1.61. The Fibs to watch are in black while the green Fibs are larger levels still at play.

QUICK LOOK

GBPUSD giving bulls another opportunity with this morning’s descent from 1.61. The Fibs to watch are in black while the green Fibs are larger levels still at play.

3:07am  |   URL: http://fmfx.tumblr.com/post/12553167734/cabletoday
(view comments) 
FILED UNDER: GBPUSD 
September 4, 2011
USD Weakness Is Still Very Real As many know, I really only view the USD through the lens of the GBPUSD. The USD has weakened versus GBP and regardless of the catalyst of a USD rally, cable continues to put in higher lows since the July 11th low at 1.5770. So while GBPUSD did put in a bearish week last week, the daily chart still remains bullish as the new trading week opens. The daily chart played out very technically as the August 24/25 lows broke below the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement levels (purple) of the rally from 1.6100 to 1.6618. A break of the 61.8% Fib usually signals a reversal. And that is what unfolded as the ensuing rally fizzled out and resulted in a new low at 1.6140 on Thursday of last week. There are a lot of bears out there on cable. And as long as price struggles above 1.6500, it is hard for the bears to go away. But the fundamentals continue to point to a LOWER US dollar. Economic data is deteriorating in the US after a decent first half of the year. The Federal Reserve has confirmed the worst is indeed coming back in the form of QE3. As the year ends, I think we will see worsening economic numbers as the consumer spending decreases in response to the slowdown in manufacturing and labor markets we have seen thus far. And while the UK economy doesn’t bode better, the Fed is much more dovish than the BoE. And for that reason, the fundamental picture favors GBP over the USD. Technically, I raise my eyebrows at the 3 bearish waves that were unable to break below 1.6100 level. This is a serious level of support and we have seen that candles that have closed above 1.61000 have led to sharp rallies back towards 1.6500. As the week opens, all eyes should be on 1.6250 to the upside and 1.6150 to the downside. These levels will dictate direction into the open especially with US markets closed Monday in observance of the Labor Day holiday. Over the week, however, the larger levels to pay attention to are 1.6100 if prices remain below 1.6250. If prices find support above 1.6250, the key level for further rallies remains 1.6500. Trade what you see! The Fed’s Plan - Rumors of News (Bruce Krasting) UK economic outlook darkens (The Financial Times)

USD Weakness Is Still Very Real

As many know, I really only view the USD through the lens of the GBPUSD. The USD has weakened versus GBP and regardless of the catalyst of a USD rally, cable continues to put in higher lows since the July 11th low at 1.5770. So while GBPUSD did put in a bearish week last week, the daily chart still remains bullish as the new trading week opens.

The daily chart played out very technically as the August 24/25 lows broke below the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement levels (purple) of the rally from 1.6100 to 1.6618. A break of the 61.8% Fib usually signals a reversal. And that is what unfolded as the ensuing rally fizzled out and resulted in a new low at 1.6140 on Thursday of last week.

There are a lot of bears out there on cable. And as long as price struggles above 1.6500, it is hard for the bears to go away. But the fundamentals continue to point to a LOWER US dollar. Economic data is deteriorating in the US after a decent first half of the year. The Federal Reserve has confirmed the worst is indeed coming back in the form of QE3. As the year ends, I think we will see worsening economic numbers as the consumer spending decreases in response to the slowdown in manufacturing and labor markets we have seen thus far. And while the UK economy doesn’t bode better, the Fed is much more dovish than the BoE. And for that reason, the fundamental picture favors GBP over the USD.

Technically, I raise my eyebrows at the 3 bearish waves that were unable to break below 1.6100 level. This is a serious level of support and we have seen that candles that have closed above 1.61000 have led to sharp rallies back towards 1.6500.

As the week opens, all eyes should be on 1.6250 to the upside and 1.6150 to the downside. These levels will dictate direction into the open especially with US markets closed Monday in observance of the Labor Day holiday. Over the week, however, the larger levels to pay attention to are 1.6100 if prices remain below 1.6250. If prices find support above 1.6250, the key level for further rallies remains 1.6500. Trade what you see!

11:34am  |   URL: http://fmfx.tumblr.com/post/9797856208/usd-weakness-is-still-very-real-as-many-know-i
(view comments) 
(No. OF NOTES: 41)
  
FILED UNDER: GBPUSD daily chart technical fundamental analysis 
August 16, 2011
GBPUSD UPDATE Before the market open this week, I did hold a bearish bias on the GBPUSD. It would only change if price remained above 1.6250. It did. And the pair rallied to high of 1.6410. However, cable failed to remain above 1.6350. As a result, cable is trading lower at 1.6325 at the time of this writing. The 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of Monday’s intraday price action at 1.6320 has been respected so far. However, the real level to watch on the news release is 1.6250. A break below and price heads towards the green zone. If price remains above, then it heads towards 1.6350 on its way to 1.6500. Ultimately, I remain a long-term bear until price trades above 1.6500. Trade what you see!

GBPUSD UPDATE

Before the market open this week, I did hold a bearish bias on the GBPUSD. It would only change if price remained above 1.6250. It did. And the pair rallied to high of 1.6410. However, cable failed to remain above 1.6350. As a result, cable is trading lower at 1.6325 at the time of this writing. The 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of Monday’s intraday price action at 1.6320 has been respected so far. However, the real level to watch on the news release is 1.6250. A break below and price heads towards the green zone. If price remains above, then it heads towards 1.6350 on its way to 1.6500. Ultimately, I remain a long-term bear until price trades above 1.6500. Trade what you see!

12:36am  |   URL: http://fmfx.tumblr.com/post/8989311462/gbpusd-update
(view comments) 
(No. OF NOTES: 5)
  
FILED UNDER: GBPUSD 8hr chart trading commentary 
August 14, 2011
GBPUSD New Week Outlook August 14 2011 Though cable managed to close the week above the key 1.6250 level, the pair maintains a bearish bias as long as price holds below 1.6500. At the open, price has the bullish momentum to move into the red sell zone that is marked by the 50% and 61.8% Fibonacci retracement levels of last week’s move to the downside. The main target for bears will be the green buy zone. However, if price manages to break and hold below 1.6100 support then expect price to move to the 1.6000 major psychological level. From there, bears will have to prove themselves with a push towards the 1.5770 lows. This week sees plenty of key economic data out of the UK that could make or break sterling this week. UK CPI is released Tuesday followed by the Bank of England meeting minutes release on Wednesday. UK retail sales will be contrasted to the US retail sales report of last week. Since both economies are heavily reliant on the consumer, investors will looks to see which economy is stronger relative to one another. There is also a lot of economic news from the US this week but I expect that UK fundamentals will ultimately dictate direction for the GBPUSD currency pair. Trade what you see!

GBPUSD New Week Outlook August 14 2011

Though cable managed to close the week above the key 1.6250 level, the pair maintains a bearish bias as long as price holds below 1.6500. At the open, price has the bullish momentum to move into the red sell zone that is marked by the 50% and 61.8% Fibonacci retracement levels of last week’s move to the downside.

The main target for bears will be the green buy zone. However, if price manages to break and hold below 1.6100 support then expect price to move to the 1.6000 major psychological level. From there, bears will have to prove themselves with a push towards the 1.5770 lows.

This week sees plenty of key economic data out of the UK that could make or break sterling this week. UK CPI is released Tuesday followed by the Bank of England meeting minutes release on Wednesday. UK retail sales will be contrasted to the US retail sales report of last week. Since both economies are heavily reliant on the consumer, investors will looks to see which economy is stronger relative to one another. There is also a lot of economic news from the US this week but I expect that UK fundamentals will ultimately dictate direction for the GBPUSD currency pair. Trade what you see!

11:18am  |   URL: http://fmfx.tumblr.com/post/8914293356/gbpusd-remains-bearish
(view comments) 
(No. OF NOTES: 5)
  
FILED UNDER: GBPUSD 8hr chart technical analysis 
August 4, 2011
GBPUSD Was Never Bullish Despite the rally this week after finding support at 1.6250, cable was unable to take out the all important 1.6500 level. It was only a close above this level that turned the bounce off of the 1.5770 low into a true rally. Alas, price failed at 1.6440 and we find ourselves back at the 1.6250. Previously, GBPUSD remained bullish as long as we had a 4-hour candle close above 1.6250. However, Thursday’s price action resulted in a candle that closed below the 1.6250 large quarter point. Though price remains above 1.6250 as of this writing, the pair has given a huge signal to further direction heading into US non-farm payrolls.  Trade what you see!

GBPUSD Was Never Bullish

Despite the rally this week after finding support at 1.6250, cable was unable to take out the all important 1.6500 level. It was only a close above this level that turned the bounce off of the 1.5770 low into a true rally.

Alas, price failed at 1.6440 and we find ourselves back at the 1.6250. Previously, GBPUSD remained bullish as long as we had a 4-hour candle close above 1.6250. However, Thursday’s price action resulted in a candle that closed below the 1.6250 large quarter point. Though price remains above 1.6250 as of this writing, the pair has given a huge signal to further direction heading into US non-farm payrolls. 

Trade what you see!

11:19pm  |   URL: http://fmfx.tumblr.com/post/8505396186/gbpusd-bearish
(view comments) 
(No. OF NOTES: 2)
  
FILED UNDER: GBPUSD 4hr chart trading commentary 
July 20, 2011
GBPUSD Remains Bid Though bears took an early lead in the week, cable has remained bid thanks to the Bank of England (BoE). The BoE meeting minutes released yesterday morning were not as dovish as the market expected. As such, GBPUSD managed to rally after weakening into the release. However, the market remains weary to strengthen the currency pair as the pair still fails to make a new high above 1.6200. The market awaits the release of UK retail sales. If better-than-expected expect cable to rally to 1.6250 which is also the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of this entire bear trend. I wouldn’t be surprised to get a break of this level to test 1.6300 if retail sales surprises to the upside. However, if retail sales disappoint expect a move back towards 1.6000 with a break opening up a further breakdown to this week’s downside targets.

GBPUSD Remains Bid

Though bears took an early lead in the week, cable has remained bid thanks to the Bank of England (BoE). The BoE meeting minutes released yesterday morning were not as dovish as the market expected. As such, GBPUSD managed to rally after weakening into the release.

However, the market remains weary to strengthen the currency pair as the pair still fails to make a new high above 1.6200. The market awaits the release of UK retail sales. If better-than-expected expect cable to rally to 1.6250 which is also the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of this entire bear trend. I wouldn’t be surprised to get a break of this level to test 1.6300 if retail sales surprises to the upside. However, if retail sales disappoint expect a move back towards 1.6000 with a break opening up a further breakdown to this week’s downside targets.

8:56pm  |   URL: http://fmfx.tumblr.com/post/7872241992/gbpusd-remains-bid
(view comments) 
(No. OF NOTES: 4)
  
FILED UNDER: GBPUSD 4hr chart trading commentary 
July 18, 2011
Cable Bears Take Early Lead Traders had to admit that another weekly close above 1.6000, despite the breakdown to 1.5770 midterm support, was bullish. However the failure at 1.62 hinted that bears were still around. The failure at 1.6150 became an early confirmation that shorts were indeed on the right side of the trade. Today’s break of 1.6050 was key. Today’s hold above 1.6000 is natural reaction to the major psychological level. So a bounce could happen back towards 1.6100. At this level, we watch if new shorts will show themselves for the bigger move towards 1.5750. 1.5950 is the first level of support to contend with. We’ve seen plenty of action there last week making this the week’s target to the downside. Momentum goes to the one who can break and hold. Bullish above, bearish below. News this week can rock this either way but today’s Monday action has yielded nicely for last week’s bears. 1.5950 is key to the downside going into Tuesday’s Bank of England meeting minutes release. The market is obviously biased bearish on the BoE considering the trend of the last 6 months. With FOMC out of the way, traders are free to put their attention back on the inaction of the BoE. Trade what you see.

Cable Bears Take Early Lead

Traders had to admit that another weekly close above 1.6000, despite the breakdown to 1.5770 midterm support, was bullish. However the failure at 1.62 hinted that bears were still around. The failure at 1.6150 became an early confirmation that shorts were indeed on the right side of the trade.

Today’s break of 1.6050 was key. Today’s hold above 1.6000 is natural reaction to the major psychological level. So a bounce could happen back towards 1.6100. At this level, we watch if new shorts will show themselves for the bigger move towards 1.5750. 1.5950 is the first level of support to contend with. We’ve seen plenty of action there last week making this the week’s target to the downside. Momentum goes to the one who can break and hold. Bullish above, bearish below. News this week can rock this either way but today’s Monday action has yielded nicely for last week’s bears.

1.5950 is key to the downside going into Tuesday’s Bank of England meeting minutes release. The market is obviously biased bearish on the BoE considering the trend of the last 6 months. With FOMC out of the way, traders are free to put their attention back on the inaction of the BoE. Trade what you see.

11:28am  |   URL: http://fmfx.tumblr.com/post/7768569790/gbpusd-bearish
(view comments) 
(No. OF NOTES: 12)
  
FILED UNDER: GBPUSD 4hr chart technical analysis 
June 30, 2011
Will GBPUSD Resume Lower? GBPUSD rallied to 1.6115 highs in the Asian session only to fall in a vicious sell-off to 1.5980. However, 15980 has become a strong level of support this week, best seen on the hourly (or 5-minute) chart. A bounce off this level targets the top of the consolidation range at 1.6040/50. A break there targets highs again above 1.6100. If GBPUSD is to continue its bear trend, price will need to break and hold below this 1.5980 level.

Will GBPUSD Resume Lower?

GBPUSD rallied to 1.6115 highs in the Asian session only to fall in a vicious sell-off to 1.5980. However, 15980 has become a strong level of support this week, best seen on the hourly (or 5-minute) chart. A bounce off this level targets the top of the consolidation range at 1.6040/50. A break there targets highs again above 1.6100.

If GBPUSD is to continue its bear trend, price will need to break and hold below this 1.5980 level.

3:36am  |   URL: http://fmfx.tumblr.com/post/7078047269/gbpusd-support
(view comments) 
(No. OF NOTES: 78)
  
FILED UNDER: GBPUSD hourly chart technical leveltowatch 
June 27, 2011
GBPUSD Needs A Correction Then Lower As we anticipated 2 weeks ago, GBPUSD has transitioned into a new bearish trend. We were watching for the infamous 1.6000 level to be broken and for price to hold below it. Well, we got both last week as price closed last week BELOW 1.6000 major large quarter point. While a very bearish event, it is prudent to note that price fell to the 1.5912 lows with very shallow to no correction on its fall from 1.6260 high of last week. That makes this pair ripe for corrective action this week. Watch the Fibonacci levels on the daily chart. Also, news this week could fuel the correction if UK GDP surprises and comes in not so bad and US manufacturing comes weaker-than-expected. And yet on the other hand news could very well fuel a continuation in the rally as the marke really expects. Trade what you see!

GBPUSD Needs A Correction Then Lower

As we anticipated 2 weeks ago, GBPUSD has transitioned into a new bearish trend. We were watching for the infamous 1.6000 level to be broken and for price to hold below it. Well, we got both last week as price closed last week BELOW 1.6000 major large quarter point.

While a very bearish event, it is prudent to note that price fell to the 1.5912 lows with very shallow to no correction on its fall from 1.6260 high of last week. That makes this pair ripe for corrective action this week.

Watch the Fibonacci levels on the daily chart. Also, news this week could fuel the correction if UK GDP surprises and comes in not so bad and US manufacturing comes weaker-than-expected. And yet on the other hand news could very well fuel a continuation in the rally as the marke really expects. Trade what you see!

12:42am  |   URL: http://fmfx.tumblr.com/post/6968184492/gbpusd-trend-change
(view comments) 
(No. OF NOTES: 4)
  
FILED UNDER: GBPUSD technical daily chart analysis 
June 15, 2011
GBPUSD Heading Into Summer Doldrums After finding support ahead of the 50% Fibonacci retracement level on the daily chart, cable headed higher as expected in reaction to the Fib level at the start of this trading week. However, the pair failed to make a higher high on the daily chart and couldn’t even regain 1.6500 on its rally. Now the pair has made new lows at 1.6167 in today’s trading session after breaking last week’s lows at 1.6216. The fundamentals have proven to support this change as UK unemployment came out worse-than-expected while inflation came in lower-than-expected. Therefore it looks as though the BoE was spot on in its inflation reports and corresponding response in monetary policy after all and will have no further incentive to tighten monetary policy in the near future as the market previously expected. In contrast, US inflation ticked higher and if that trend picks up momentum, the market will begin to anticipate a move in tightening monetary policy sooner than expected. That would spell further USD strength in the midst of GBP weakness which could equal a new bear trend in the GBPUSD as we begin to shift into summer trading. Trade what you see! Intraday and intra-week, price will move up, down, and then up again. But that doesn’t change the fact that long term that the GBPUSD is seemingly moving into a new trend. In the meantime, let’s not get too far ahead of ourselves. 1.6000 is the first major level of support on the daily chart that price needs to break and remain below in order to see this new bear trend really begin to take hold.

GBPUSD Heading Into Summer Doldrums

After finding support ahead of the 50% Fibonacci retracement level on the daily chart, cable headed higher as expected in reaction to the Fib level at the start of this trading week. However, the pair failed to make a higher high on the daily chart and couldn’t even regain 1.6500 on its rally.

Now the pair has made new lows at 1.6167 in today’s trading session after breaking last week’s lows at 1.6216. The fundamentals have proven to support this change as UK unemployment came out worse-than-expected while inflation came in lower-than-expected. Therefore it looks as though the BoE was spot on in its inflation reports and corresponding response in monetary policy after all and will have no further incentive to tighten monetary policy in the near future as the market previously expected. In contrast, US inflation ticked higher and if that trend picks up momentum, the market will begin to anticipate a move in tightening monetary policy sooner than expected. That would spell further USD strength in the midst of GBP weakness which could equal a new bear trend in the GBPUSD as we begin to shift into summer trading.

Trade what you see! Intraday and intra-week, price will move up, down, and then up again. But that doesn’t change the fact that long term that the GBPUSD is seemingly moving into a new trend. In the meantime, let’s not get too far ahead of ourselves. 1.6000 is the first major level of support on the daily chart that price needs to break and remain below in order to see this new bear trend really begin to take hold.

3:14pm  |   URL: http://fmfx.tumblr.com/post/6566815576/gbpusd-trend-change
(view comments) 
(No. OF NOTES: 4)
  
FILED UNDER: GBPUSD daily chart technical analysis 
June 13, 2011
GBPUSD put in the perfect Fib move to the pip and hits the 123% Fib extension on the way back up. Textbook move.

GBPUSD put in the perfect Fib move to the pip and hits the 123% Fib extension on the way back up. Textbook move.

1:38pm  |   URL: http://fmfx.tumblr.com/post/6497762966/gbpusd-perfect-fib
(view comments) 
(No. OF NOTES: 9)
  
FILED UNDER: GBPUSD 5min chart technical analysis 
May 31, 2011
Update On The GBPUSD Just an update to the chart from yesterday’s analysis. After a spike higher during the Asian session, the 50% Fibonacci level has held and the pair is continuing lower into the Asian close. The pair is well set to move lower and make new lows below 1.6422 as expected. UK manufacturing, net lending, and money supply numbers are due later this morning in the European session. Any upside surprise in the data may upset the current setup. What is more likely, however, is another spike higher that will be met by sellers before the pair moves below 1.6400. 1.6500, now the 61.8% Fibonacci level of yesterday’s price action, has to hold as resistance for this to be true. Be mindful of news and trade what you see! Downside targets are 1.6393 and 1.6360. If bulls step in in a major way due to news, upside targets are 1.6545 and 1.6640.

Update On The GBPUSD

Just an update to the chart from yesterday’s analysis.

After a spike higher during the Asian session, the 50% Fibonacci level has held and the pair is continuing lower into the Asian close. The pair is well set to move lower and make new lows below 1.6422 as expected.

UK manufacturing, net lending, and money supply numbers are due later this morning in the European session. Any upside surprise in the data may upset the current setup. What is more likely, however, is another spike higher that will be met by sellers before the pair moves below 1.6400. 1.6500, now the 61.8% Fibonacci level of yesterday’s price action, has to hold as resistance for this to be true.

Be mindful of news and trade what you see! Downside targets are 1.6393 and 1.6360. If bulls step in in a major way due to news, upside targets are 1.6545 and 1.6640.

11:44pm  |   URL: http://fmfx.tumblr.com/post/6065092239/gbpusd-update
(view comments) 
(No. OF NOTES: 5)
  
FILED UNDER: GBPUSD 4hour chart technical analysis